JFL

Jan. 21, 2020

Investment Outlook Q4 2019

Economic Review

  • The economy continued to surprise the pessimists as it recovered from its recent slowdown and resumed its expansion.
  • Stock markets climbed the proverbial wall of worry to close at record highs while fears of recession, trade wars and Brexit grabbed media headlines.
  • Globally, there have been over 50 central bank interest rate cuts in the past six months, which is the highest number since the financial crisis in 2008.

Investment Outlook

  • We are optimistic that economic growth will continue as manufacturing destocking ends, along with the strong possibility of a fiscal stimulus package in the U.S.
  • Central bank intervention will continue to be needed in the absence of truly significant fiscal policy stimulus.
  • Long-term trend rate of economic growth will continue to be modest even without the added uncertainty from protracted trade wars and Brexit negotiations.

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